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Texas’ grid operator warned that the state should prepare for extreme cold this winter but said the state’s main power grid is better equipped than in previous years to withstand a powerful winter storm.

At a board meeting on Tuesday, officials from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said that while winter presented a greater risk of outages, new power generation added to the grid in the past year has lowered the probability that extreme cold will trigger emergency conditions.

ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman’s forecast predicted above normal temperatures this winter, but a “greater-than-average” chance of extreme cold events.

Extreme cold events have occurred more frequently in recent years, he said, despite abnormally warm temperatures overall in Texas.

Scientists agree that climate change is causing more extreme weather. But the phrase “climate change” did not appear in any of the presentations at the ERCOT meeting.

Coleman’s presentation to the board said 2023 and 2024 are poised to become the hottest years on record in Texas.

“You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that’s becoming more frequent,” he said. “Five of the last eight winters, we’ve had temperatures that met those thresholds.”

Coleman’s forecast said ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns, soil moisture and other measures this year closely resemble those of 2021. In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri brought days of freezing temperatures that crashed the state’s grid, knocked out power and heat to millions of Texans and led to nearly 250 deaths.

“That doesn’t mean we’re going to have Uri, but it does, again, state that we’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” Coleman said. “The conditions are there.”

Another major winter storm would test the improvements made to the ERCOT grid since 2021.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said, winter demand for power has also increased in recent years, with the grid seeing record-breaking demand of 78,349 megawatts in January.

Texas’ grid has seen more than 10,000 megawatts of new generation come online since November 2023, helping to reduce the chances of an outage, Vegas said.

The new supply includes around 5,155 megawatts of solar power and 3,693 megawatts of electricity storage capacity — which is more solar and power storage added in a year than the total for many states. Texas also added 724 megawatts of natural gas and 616 megawatts of wind power.

The added capacity has helped lower the risk of emergency conditions during peak demand times from 11.6% last winter to 8.7% this winter, according to Vegas’ presentation.

ERCOT estimates that 1 megawatt of electricity serves around 250 Texas homes during peak demand — though some energy experts have argued that less efficient heating systems in many homes means that number is lower.

Weatherization efforts have also strengthened the grid ahead of this winter, Vegas said. ERCOT has carried out 2,892 inspections of generation and transmission facilities since the Texas Legislature codified a set of weatherization standards in 2021 after Uri.

The requirements, Vegas said, have “markedly changed the risk profile of the ERCOT grid, particularly during the winter seasons.”

Still, he noted that solar and wind sources produce less power in the winter, and that demand for power increases in the cold.

During Uri, the extreme cold knocked out all forms of power sources around the state as wind turbines, equipment at gas-powered plants and natural gas supply equipment froze.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2024/12/03/texas-power-grid-ercot-winter-forecast-extreme-cold/.

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